Hindutva terror probe haunts Pune blast investigation

PUNE: Back in November 2008, as Lieutenant-Colonel Prasad Shrikant Purohit walked into a Nashik court to face trial for his alleged role in the bombing of a Malegaon mosque, Hindutva activists showered the rogue military officer with rose petals.
Last week’s bombing of the German Bakery in Pune has brought the ugly story of Abhinav Bharat — the Hindutva terrorist group Purohit helped found — back from the obscurity to which it was consigned by the Mumbai carnage, which took place just days after the trial in Nashik began.
In private, Hindus sympathetic to the ultra-right have been saying the bombings demonstrate the moral legitimacy of Purohit and his Hindutva terror project. Even as the police detained more than two dozen young Muslim men for questioning, some community leaders have been arguing that the bakery attack could just have easily been carried out by a Hindutva group.
Part of the reason for the controversy is that key suspects involved in Abhinav Bharat’s terror campaign have never been held. Jatin Chatterjee — better known by his alias Swami Asimanand — is thought to be hiding out in Gujarat’s Adivasi tracts, where he runs a Hindu proselytisation organisation. Ramnarayan Kalsangra, Abhinav Bharat’s key bomb-maker, is also a fugitive.
Founded in the summer of 2006, Abhinav Bharat was set up as an educational trust with Himani Savarkar — daughter of Gopal Godse, brother of Mahatma Gandhi’s assassin — as its chairperson. But, documents filed by Maharashtra prosecutors show, members of the group were soon involved in discussing armed activity. In June 2007, Purohit allegedly suggested that the time had come to target Muslims through terrorist attacks — a plea others in Abhinav Bharat rejected.
But, the evidence gathered by the police suggests, many within the group were determined to press ahead. At a meeting in April 2008, key suspects including Madhya Pradesh-based Hindutva activist Pragnya Singh Thakur and Jammu cleric Sudhakar Dwivedi, also known as Amritananda Dev Tirtha, met Purohit to hammer out the Malegaon plot. Explosives were later procured by Purohit, and handed over to Kalsangra in early August 2008.
Abhinav Bharat’s long-term aims, though, went far beyond targeting Muslims: its members wanted to overthrow the Indian state and replace it with a totalitarian, theocratic order. A draft constitution prepared by Abhinav Bharat spoke of a single-party system, presided over by a leader who “shall be followed at all levels without questioning the authority.” It called for the creation of an “academy of indoctrinization [sic.].” The concluding comment was stark: “People whose ideas are detrimental to Hindu Rashtra should be killed.”
Purohit’s plans to bring about a Hindutva state were often fantastical. He claimed, the prosecutors say, to have secured an appointment with Nepal’s King Gyanendra in 2006 and 2007 to press for his support for the planned Hindutva revolution. Nepal, he went on, was willing to train Abhinav Bharat’s cadre, and supply it with assault rifles. Israel’s government, he said, had agreed to grant members of the group military support and, if needed, political asylum.
Many believe that Abhinav Bharat carried out many attacks earlier attributed to jihadist groups — notable among them, the bombing of the Mecca Masjid in Hyderabad in May 2007, and a subsequent attack on the famous shrine at Ajmer. Despite persistent questioning of Abhinav Bharat cadre, though, the investigators have not been able to link the group to the attacks.
Matters are complicated by the fact that some of the operations attributed to Abhinav Bharat may not have had much to do with the group — even though its leading luminaries claimed responsibility for the attacks.
For example, Purohit allegedly claimed to confidants that the attack was carried out by the Dewas-based Hindutva terrorist Sunil Joshi, who was murdered in December 2007. But the United States Treasury Department later imposed sanctions on Lashkar-e-Taiba activist Arif Kasmani — a Karachi-based jihadist with close links to the Taliban and al-Qaeda — for financing the attack.
In January this year, Pakistan’s Interior Ministry chief Rehman Malik went further, admitting that “there were some Pakistan-based Islamists who had been hired to carry out the Samjhauta Express attack.”
Judging by recent Hindutva terror attacks, like last year’s bombings in Goa, it is unclear if they still have the capabilities to mount a sophisticated attack of the kind seen in Pune. Few investigators believe that the organisations — or other Hindutva cells — mounted the operation. “Still”, says one Maharashtra police official involved in investigating both Hindutva and jihadist attacks, “you can’t help wondering — what if?”
Signs are the investigation into the bombing of the German Bakery will take time. All that investigators have by way of suspects are three men recorded holding brief meetings before the blast by a poor-quality closed-circuit television camera. From the videotape, it is unclear if the men had anything to do with the attack.
The longer the investigation takes, the more time conspiracy theories and speculation will have to proliferate — likely deepening the communal fissures the bombing is already opening up

عدلیہ غیر جانب دار نہیں رہی, عاصمہ جہانگیر

Patriotism In Balochistan

ALI SUKHANVER 


My moon is every body’s moon; this poetic phrase seems  no more limited to the expression of love between a lover and the beloved; with the passage of time it has become more appropriate and more suitable for the sincere and truthful lands like that of Balochistan. Located on the northern tip of straits of Hormuz, Balochistan has no doubt become ever body’s moon. This is the area through which much of the world's oil supply passes. Moreover it is God giftedly rich in natural resources with an estimated 19 trillion cubic feet of natural gas reserves and 6 trillion barrels of oil reserves. Therefore, many countries including USA, Russia and India see Balochistan as a strategically important zone of influence. The international realization of this strategic importance of Balochistan has deprived its people of their calm and peace by pushing them into an artificially created series of trials and tribulations. Mercilessly exploding bombs and cruelly piercing bullets have targeted nothing but the atmospheric serenity and tranquility of this land.

A few days back, all newspapers and electronic media channels were replete with the news of two boxers from Balochistan, Naimatullah Khan and Mohammad Waseem who won gold and silver medals, respectively, at the South Asian Games. Talking on the occasion, the medalists said that they are very happy that they secured medals for their country Pakistan and promised that they would work more hard in the same spirit to win more honour and respect for their motherland in future. Silver medalist Waseem said that justice was not done with him in the final because he is a Pakistani and he was winning the contest against an Indian boxer.

But on the other hand one finds a lot of propaganda statements of few self-generated Baloch leaders who are enjoying all possible luxuries of life, staying abroad in Western countries, in palace-like houses. They claim that the people of Balochistan want separation from Pakistan. Ironically, most of such leaders have never ever tasted even a grain of the hardships which have become a routine matter for a poor Balochi. These leaders introduce them as the leaders of the so-called Independence movement ongoing in Balochistan. They also claim that the federal government of Pakistan is depriving the people of Balochistan of their basic human rights. The above mentioned two boxers also represent the common man of Balochistan but whatever they said talking to the media, negates the views of ‘the leaders of the Balochistan Independence Movement’.

The worsening law and order situation in Balochistan does not belong to the people of Balochistan. It is nothing but an international attempt of weakening Pakistan. A handful of paid terrorists who have no sympathy with Balochistan are safeguarding the foreign interests in the same way as they are doing in other parts of the country including FATA, NWFP and Karachi. The most important role played, in this context, is that of the Indian consulates along the Pak-Afghan border. These unnecessary Indian consulates are providing hub for the Indian intelligence activities and are solely responsible for dispatching trained militants in Balochistan. The Indian consulates in Jalalabad and Kandhar are pumping money into Balochistan. The US under Secretary of State for political affairs Mr. William Burn’s statement could be a very strong proof in this reference. In one of his recent statements he asked the Indian government to ‘trim its consulates in Jalalabad.’  

Another proof of the foreign hand in Balochistan is the statement of The   Khan   of Kalat. While   forming   the   'Council   for   Independent Balochistan' in London, he said that he is enjoying the support of ‘Like-minded and friendly' countries who have promised him all help and cooperation. The situation could become more easily understandable if his statement is put together with the statement of former RAW agent B Raman's who once said that struggle for an independent Balochistan is part of the unfinished agenda of the partition.

The deep seated Indian hostility against Pakistan is the root cause of most of the problems Pakistan is facing. Although most of the Pakistanis are always in favour and support of good friendly relationship with India, yet their desires are never welcomed by the Indian hi-ups. Recently it came to the surface that the increasing international pressure has compelled India to resume peace talks with Pakistan. This news was surely good news for the people of Pakistan but all their joy and happiness vanished when they at once found different Indian leaders singing their old favourite song that Pakistan must hand over to India the culprits involved in the Mumbai blasts tragedy. Shockingly at the same time the human rights violations of the Indian armed forces in the Occupied Kashmir became more flagrant. The situation in Balochistan can never be normalized unless Indian influence in the area is curtailed and checked upon. The first and the most urgent step in this regard is to close the unnecessary Indian Consulates along Pak-afghan borders. It is the responsibility of all those forces which claim that they desire for a permanent peace in the South-Asian region to keep an eye on nefarious Indian designs in the region. If India kept on interfering in Balochistan the situation is surely going to be more dangerous not only for Pakistan but also for Iran and at a later stage for China. 

Iran has a large Baloch population on its side of border with Pakistan and the Indian desire of weakening Pakistan by creating independent Balochistan will cost heavy to Iran itself as the map of Greater Balochistan includes Sistan province as well. Although Pakistan and Iran both are fully aware of the Indian conspiracies and the armed forces of both the countries have a very strong capability to counter Indian desires yet the situation demands more concentration on the part of the government of Pakistan. It must do all the best possible for the betterment of the people of Balochistan. Unless they are politically, economically and educationally contented and satisfied, they won’t be in a position to counter the conspiracies of the so-called ‘freedom fighters’. It is the most urgent need of time to remove the atmosphere of mistrust between the Baloch and the Federation. The Balochis are no doubt very sincere and patriotic Pakistanis like the people of other provinces but a continuous Indian propaganda joined together with their social and political problems may pollute their feelings. The political demands of the actual and original Baloch leaders must be given weight and accepted through negotiation. They must be taken into confidence regarding Indian designs of creating unrest in Balochistan.

Gawadar   Port development program will   bring a lot   of prosperity to   people   of Balochistan, so it must be completed on priority basis. It is the moral right of the local Baloch population to get the maximum benefits of the Gawadar Port Project. New jobs and vacancies must be created for these local people so that they may strengthen them economically. The government of Pakistan must not ignore the fact that most of the Balochis are fed up with the Sardari system which never allows them to grow prolifically according to their own desires. They are of the opinion that without getting freedom from the clutches of the Sardari system, they can not make their lives prosperous and peaceful.

Different Baloch political leaders blame the previous governments of Pakistan for ignoring the political leaders of Balochistan and for giving undue importance to the sardars. Such type of grievances must be redressed as soon as possible. The people of Balochistan are demanding the complete return of the Army troops which were posted in Balochistan for the maintenance of law and order situation in the past. This demand must also be accepted as soon as possible and these troops should be replaced with the F.C troops. 

The people of Balochistan have a culture of their own. They have their particular traditions and values. History tells us, if they are trusted upon, taken into confidence, they are the best friends and the most reliable companions. They are always extremely honest and devoted to their soil. In the name of trust and confidence they can sacrifice each and everything they have. Pakistan is their motherland. These sons-of- the soil expect a very deep and caring love from their motherland.

Author is a Pakistan based bilingual analyst on national and international strategic and defense affairs. Email: alisukhanver@hotmail.com
   http://kashmirwatch.com/showarticles.php?subaction=showfull&id=1266394865&archive=&start_from=&ucat=3&var1news=value1news

US grand conspiracy

Afshain Afzal

US is facing defeat like situation in Afghanistan, which compelled top bosses at Pentagon and White House to reconsider US’ Afghan strategy. The heavy toll of alien forces at the hand of Taliban since last two years, especially in the months of December 2009, January and February 2010 forced the foreign forces to pullout their troops from Afghanistan. The latest one or two odd operations against Mujahideen have been, in fact, conducted by the soldiers of Afghan National Army (ANA) while the command was held by the NATO troops. This is being done with the spirit to minimize casualties of NATO forces. Fact here cannot be denied that till to-date the maximum punch has been absorbed in Afghanistan by ANA while the US and allies only perform supervisory and command roles. As per the latest plan chalked out at Pentagon, alien troops would start withdrawal from mid next year. However, many analysts have not noticed that the withdrawal has already taken place and instead of combatants as replacement, fresh groups of trainers and members of reconstruction team have already started arriving in Kabul and Islamabad. The most striking feature of the new US strategy is that a new private Army is being raised on the lines of SWAT (Special Weapons And Tactics) teams. To achieve this goal, Washington has started recruiting non-US citizens in its Army. The controversial plan of opening Recruitment Centres in Afghanistan and Pakistan is already underway and more foreigners from Asia and Arabia are being offered citizenship. The concept is not new as most of the US personnel in Afghanistan are not Americans but foreign citizens, serving as mercenaries to achieve US’ objectives. By doing this, obviously, the total size of US military would be expanded to ensure presence of US ground troops in most of the troubled zones of the world as well would minimize American casualties. Today foreign intelligence agencies and their front offices claim that they have brigades of Pakistanis serving and retired government officers and staff who are working for them. They include bureaucrats, Armed Forces personnel, government employees and others. One wonders, how come we have allowed these people to work for our adversaries and rivals. When we talk about the writ of the government, it really sounds meaningless that those who are the employees of foreign government are being given red carpet receptions while those are mere suspected to be agents are ruthlessly killed. It is criminal on the part of foreign government and their agencies to employ Pakistani serving and retired officers and staff without seeking permission in writing from Islamabad. We need to impress upon the foreign governments through their embassies and consulates in Pakistan as well as through our representatives in foreign countries about Ex-Government Servants’ Employment with Foreign Governments (Prohibitation) Act. We have treaty of extradition with a number of countries of the world and Pakistan must get back its criminals so that exemplary punishment should be awarded to them as they are breaching the security of the country. US plan to recruit soldiers and Marines from Afghanistan and Pakistan has been authenticated by law. Few years back, Pentagon policy restricted only those immigrants who were legally residing in the US to be eligible for joining Armed Forces. But this has been overcome by change in US law, which gave Pentagon authority to bring immigrants to the US if it determines it is vital to national security. Pentagon is confident that that it would achieve recruiting goals in Afghanistan and Pakistan. No doubt, those would are willing to work for US interests in lieu of minor attraction like US citizenship can never be loyal to either Afghanistan or Pakistan. They are fifth columnist and enemies in our files but our countries should no give them free hand. They need to be treated as traitors and apprehended on that account or should be forced out in exile for good. Ironically, there are many bureaucrats, Armed Forces personnel, government and other employees who are unaware of the Employment with Foreign Governments (Prohibitation) Act and claim that if simply a No Objection Certificate (NOC) is awarded by parent department they may take-up employment with anywhere. This is not only disgusting but speaks of casual attitude from ministries, departments and other offices in guiding their employees about the rules under which they are governed. Gone is gone, we still have time to warn beforehand that anyone taking up employment in federal or provincial governments would not beallowed to take up job with foreign government and their agencies. Weak clause such as “except with previous permission in writing of the Federal Government…” need to be ignored as no sane person would provide a chance to a pensioner, retired officials or an ex-employee to share national secrets with foreign government. Specifically talking about sensitive departments under Ministry of Defence including Armed Forces and other sensitive offices, they cannot be permitted under any condition. The authority giving a NOC may be asked to give in writing that by undertaking employment of the ex-employee with foreign government it will in no way compromise classified information and security of Pakistan. As regard to the Pakistani Armed Forces and other government departments, it is duty of every Pakistani to furnish information to Police about deserters and those who are employees of foreign governments in Pakistan and abroad. Armed Forces personnel who have deserted or joined foreign governments diplomatic or counselor representatives including their information, public relations, trade or commercial agency, service or foundation established or maintained by any such government or by any person who is a national of foreign country required to be immediately arrested, even by an ordinary citizen of Pakistan. Such individuals are not only criminals in the eyes of law but have breached national trust and are enemies of Pakistan. Thus, any person who apprehends or who furnishes information which leads to the apprehension of a combatant, including a reservist or non-combatant who is in the state of desertion or absent without leave form Army and who does not surrender himself voluntarily will receive a reward. To this effect a list is maintained by District Superinendent of Police which can be easily accessed by general public. Penalty is already clear in the law that whoever contravenes the provision of section shall be punishable with the imprisonment for a term that may extend to seven years, or with fine that may extend to fifty thousand rupees or with forfeiture of property, or with any two or more of the said punishments. In the prevailing situation, this act of the National Assembly which received an assent of the President on 7th July, 1966 and was published in the Gazette of Pakistan needs to be made further rigorous so that no one dare to violate national security by joining files of enemies and rivals. afshain@hotmail.com

Maoist Attack in West Bengal, India

About 100 Maoist rebels stormed a police camp in the region of Shilda in West Bengal on Monday. The rebels fired indiscriminately and set fire to the site, killing 24 policemen.

Authorities say the rebels took away a huge cache of weapons in the latest assault.

Police say that the camp is located in the same area where a major anti-Maoist offensive was launched last year.

China dismissive of India's missile power

Revealing the truly brittle nature of its much-hyped near super power status, the Chinese establishment has rushed to refute the contention of a top Indian defence scientist that aspects of India's missile development programme were superior to that of China.
The Global Times, a Communist Party-backed Chinese newspaper, has front-paged a report that quotes a top Chinese naval officer, who is also a defence analyst, as saying that India was at least a decade and more behind China in missile technology. The report was prominently splashed across the Chinese media.
In the Friday report, Chinese rear admiral, Zhang Zhaozhong, was quoted as saying, ''India's technology for its measurement and control system, which is used to trace launched missiles, remains at a very low level, and they are unable to constitute a complete and reliable missile defense system.''
This, of course, makes nonsense of all Indian achievements in the field of missile defence so far, as intercepts are not possible if you should have ''low level measurement and control systems to trace launched missiles,'' according to Adm Zhaozhong.
Indian missile defence technology initially relied on imported Israeli long range Green Pine radars to constitute its tracking apparatus. In the last round of tests Indian defence scientists revealed that they had developed a more advanced version of the Green Pine, a 'super' Green Pine so to speak, to track missile launches.
Adm Zhaozhong's assertion is in keeping with past displays of what may be characterised as a deep seated inferiority complex that China exhibits towards most Indian achievements. It may be recalled that at the time India launched its Chandrayaan-1 moon mission, the Chinese media went berserk with the 'news'  that the lunar orbiter had failed to reach the required orbit for eventual transit into moon orbit.  The 'news' was put down to some 'analysis' carried out by private Chinese space 'experts.'

Advani recalls Nehru's ''blunders'' on China, Pakistan

India, which is today trying hard to get a permanent seat in the United Nations Security Council, had refused it in 1952 in favour of China! The fact finds mention in the latest blog of veteran BJP leader L K Advani in which he sees the problems of the country with China and Pakistan as rooted in the foreign policy of Pt Jawaharlal Nehru.

''There can hardly be a more glaring instance of Nehrujis unconcern for the Indias own strategic interests than his refusal to accept a U S offer in 1952 of a permanent seat in the U N Security Council, till then held by Taiwan,'' says Mr Advani. '

'He insisted that the seat be given to China. Interestingly, this fact is mentioned in his recent book on Pandit Nehru by Shashi Tharoor, an MOS in Prime Minister Manmohan Singh Government,'' said Mr Advani.

''When Mr Nehru declined to accept the U S proposal, his argument was that he did not want U S to marginalise China. We thereby only hurt our own interests,'' he said.

Mr Advani pointed out that in 2008, a conclave of foreign ministers of BRIC countries (Brazil, Russia, India and China) was held at Yekaterinburg (Russia), at which Russia pressed that the conclave support Indias plea to secure a permanent place in the U N Security Council. Russias move did not succeed because it was strongly opposed by China!

The Congress has always projected Pandit Nehru as an exemplary helmsman of Indias foreign policy, but Dr Syama Prasad Mookerjee, on the other hand, regarded Panditjis handling of Pakistan, as well as China, as two egregious blunders of his, the BJP leader said.

''Sadly, the shock that Nehru suffered when confronted by Chinas gross betrayal in 1962 virtually cost him his life. His mishandling of Pakistan has left terrorism and Kashmir as two festering sores for our body politic right up to this day,'' he said.

Mr Advani quotes approvingly from a book of Fareed Zakaria, Editor of Newsweek International that ''Nehru rooted Indias foreign policy in abstract ideas rather than a strategic conception of national interests. He disdained alliances, pacts, and treaties, seeing them as part of the old rules of real politik, and was uninterested in military matters.''

'Ironically, Fareed Zakaria writes, Indias policies became'especially tough-minded and shrewd during the reign of Nehrus daughter, Indira Gandhi,'' says the BJP leader.

Mr Advani says that now all know that it was during her regime that Bangladesh was carved out, and that India took its initial step into the field of nuclear weaponry.

Those who have been following the development of India into a full fledged nuclear weapons state are aware that Pokharan I took place in 1974, during Ms Gandhis tenure, and the process then started was completed by Prime Minister Atal Bihari Vajpayee through Pokharan II, where on May 1, 1999 three underground nuclear tests were successfully conducted, he said.

Zakaria, Mr Advani adds, in his Penguin publication titled 'The Post American world', says that the ''central paradox of India'' today is that ''its society is open, eager and confident ready to take on the world'', but its state - its ruling class - is ''hesitant, cautious and suspicious of the changing realities around it''.

''Nowhere is this tension more obvious than in the realm of foreign policy, the increasingly large and important task of determining how India should fit into the new world''.

He says Zakarias book recalls that when Mountbatten suggested that there be a powerful chief of defence staff, Nehru turned down the suggestion, and a week into his new government, he walked over to the Defence Ministry and was furious to find military officers working there (as they do in every defence ministry in the world).

''Since then all armed service personnel work in New Delhis South Block wear civilian clothes''. Mr Advani said Pandit Nehru remained Indias Prime Minister from 1947 to 1964 and throughout his tenure he was his own Foreign Minister.

Quoting from the autobiography of K P S Menon, one of the India's first Foreign Secretaries, Mr Advani said,''We had no precedents to fall back upon because India had no foreign policy of her own until it became independent. Our policy therefore necessarily rested on the intuition of one man, who was Foreign Minister, Jawaharlal Nehru.''

Mahe Rabi Un Noor Mubarak to all my Muslim friends

Mahe Rabi Un Noor Mubarak to all my Muslim friends

Chamka Mahe Noor Ka Hilal Marhaba Ya RasoolAllah صلی اللہ علیہ وآلہ وسلم!

26/11: Why India didn’t attack Pakistan

Before visiting Pakistan, Robert Gates warned from New Delhi that, should 2007 Mumbai like incident occur again, India would attack Pakistan, meaning thereby that the past Mumbai killings have been solely attributed to Pakistan and if such an incident occurred again, responsibility would be that of Pakistan, and in retaliation, India would be perfectly justified to attack Pakistan. In this situation USA would not be in a position to restrain India. Rather it may support this venture.
The message is fraught with ominous consequences and therefore demands a clear assessment of our ability to respond, if such a threat develops. This assessment therefore, is based on existing ground realities, which determine the military power balance between Pakistan and India. No doubt, the Indian armed forces are numerically superior to Pakistan, but they suffer from some inherent weaknesses and, it will take them a long time to overcome these.
Indian armed forces are in the midst of a transition,  replacement of the obsolete Russian weapons system with high tech American Israeli European weapons. India started this changeover in 2005 after signing the Strategic Partnership Agreement with USA and hopes to complete it by the year 2015. Already it has spent about a hundred billion dollars on the new acquisitions. Their entire military system at present therefore, is weak, because they have the old and absolute weapons and about thirty percent of the recently acquired new systems. They suffer from a predicament, similar to what we suffered in early seventies, because, USA bad abandoned Pakistan in 1965 and we had not been able to induct new weapons and equipment from other sources. India exploited this weakness and dismembered Pakistan. Thus, India suffering from such weaknesses, now, is not in a position to wage a full f1edged war against Pakistan.
India faces another serious problem, in that, despite their best efforts of the last forty years, they have failed to manufacture their own tanks, guns, cruise missiles, fighter aircrafts, battleships and submarines. This in essence, constitutes a major weakness of the Indian armed forces, because, the present day war cannot be won with weapons borrowed or purchased from others. And, contrary to the weaknesses of India and cognising the implications of self-reliance, Pakistan has achieved up to ninety percent of indigenisation of weapons and equipment. We have our own tanks, guns, cruise missiles, fighter aircrafts, battleships and submarines as well as we have a stock-pile of war reserves, of over forty days, as compared to just eleven days of war reserves in 1965 and seven days in 1971. Whereas India’s war reserves as of today are limited to 15 days only. Thus, Pakistan in this respect also enjoys a clear edge over India.
The third dimensional capability of Pakistan is, in the way of higher military education and superior military and operational strategy, which is the hallmark of our military leadership, and was demonstrated some twenty years back in 1989, during Ex Zarb e Momin. The Offensive Defence concept was practised and over the period, has been actualised as the fundamental doctrine of war. Offensive Defence means that our forces having fixed the enemy, will carry the war into their territory. Compare it with the Cold Start doctrine of India, of fighting a war on two fronts, which is more of a fiction than a realistic military doctrine.
Mr Robert Gates, as well as the Indian military planners, while taking into cognisance the existing military balance between Pakistan and India, must also consider the new phenomenon of the Asymmetric War, which, during the last thirty years, has established the supremacy of Men and Missiles, over the most modern and technologically superior armed forces of the world, in Iraq, Afghanistan, Lebanon and Kashmir. The Asymmetric War, in essence is the name of the Islamic Resistance, with its hardcore resting along the Durand Line. It is our strength. Thus, conventional as well as irregular armed forces, together provide the emerging shape of the Fourth Generation of modern warfare, as Joseph S Nye, the former Assistant Secretary of Defence USA and a professor of Harvard University, defines: “The hybrid wars, conventional and irregular forces combatants and civilians become thoroughly intertwined” to win wars and help establish the new order. In case, war is forced on Pakistan, it would be a long and decisive war, where new geo-political realities would emerge, establishing new frontiers of peace in the region.
Nuclear weapons are not the weapons of war because these have never been used as such. United States used it against the Japanese in 1945, which already had lost the war, nor had the capability to retaliate. American purpose was primarily diplomatic, i.e. to declare to the world that, America was entering the centre stage of world politics, to establish its global primacy and pre-eminence. There are other instances also, where nuclear powers, possessing hundreds and thousands of atomic weapons could not use them, to save themselves from very difficult and embarrassing situations. The Americans lost the war in Vietnam; the Soviets lost their empire in Afghanistan; the Israelis could not cover the shame of defeat at the hands of Hezbollah in 2005; the Americans having suffered defeat in Iraq, now are facing a worse defeat in Afghanistan, yet they find no recourse to use their nuclear capability. Their NATO partners are equally embarrassed, yet they cannot think of using their nuclear weapons to cover the shame of impending defeat. Similarly, India and Pakistan can fight only conventional wars and win or loose, but they dare not use nuclear weapons against each other, because it would destroy everything, leaving nothing but ashes, one could hope to capture and rebuild. And therefore, our people must not carry the wrong notion that Pakistan is powerful because it has nuclear capability. On the contrary, it is the conventional military capability, which provides security and lends resilience to the nation, as of now, and provides space to the po1itical government, to establish good governance.
Nuclear weapons are also great equalizer, between nuclear capable adversaries. “Between India and Pakistan, perfect deterrence exists” – declared George Fernandis, the former Defence Minister of India, after Pakistan demonstrated its capability in May 1998. And that precisely is the function of the weapons of mass destruction. Pakistan’s policy of Minimum Credible Nuclear Deterrence, supported by the Policy of Restraint, together serves the purpose of a stable nuclear deterrence. Nuclear capability also doesn’t compensate for the conventional military capability, and working on this principle the conventional military capability of Pakistan has been so developed as to make it a real symbol of national power, to defeat all aggression from within and outside.
Such are the ground realities, which determine the capabilities of our armed forces which cannot be wiped off by contrived constructs of our adversaries, nor Pakistan can be scared of going to the brink, if a war was forced on it. J F Dulles has rightly said: “If you are scared to go to the brink you are lost.”
Robert Gates’ threat of war, Published: February 9, 2010, GENERAL MIRZA ASLAM BEG (RETD)
Here is the real reason why Bharat could not attack Pakistan.
The Pakistan Air Force (PAF) has acquired 18 F-16 of the Block 52 series taking its total to 64, a squadron of jointly produced (China-Pakistan) JF 17  Thunder fighters. It  has ordered some 36 J-10B fighters upgraded to the the Super 10– an upgraded version of the J-10 with a locally made Chinese TVC engine (beyond the WS-13). The PAF produced the K-8 trainer and is also working with the  Chinese to produce L-15 supersonic trainers. The “Shaheens” have  already ordered eight Erieye AEW&C from Sweden and now owns IL-78 Refueling tankers tankers for mid-flight refueling. The PAF is also producing the AWACs with Chinese help. It has received a dozen S-70 Super Cobra helicopters from the US. The PAFs current published strength is reportedly 383 combat capable aircraft including the older upgraded Chinese A-5, 129 F-7 PG/MG (Chinese revamped version of the MiG-21), nearly 113  upgraded Mirage III/V, some 64-plus F-16 fighters and a squadron of JF-17 of which some 500 are being built locally (25-75 per annum). PAF officials are aiming to finally acquire a whopping 150 J-10Bs from China in the next decade. The PAF is also eyeing the J-14 (J-XX, Chinas’ 5th gen stealth fighter which it calls 4th generation)
The IAF’s current strength is around 600 of which the MiG21 fleet of (FL, M, MF and Bis types) comprise 293 aircraft. The IAF has MiG-23 (BN&MF), Mi-17 helicopters, Mi-25/35 attack helicopters, Mi-26 super heavy helicopters, Mirage-2000 multi-role fighters, MiG-29 and Mig-27s.  The IAF  slowly phased out the Fairchild Packet C-119, the Dakota DC-3, Caribou, Otter, Toofani, Mystere 4A, Gnat, Ajeet and the Hunter and later the Canberra light bomber aircraft as well. It has about 30 1996 vintage Sukhoi 30MKI (Flanker: 140 have been ordered and 140 will be assembled from kits). It also is bying the PAKFA (aka FGFA) whose 5th gen credentials have been challenged by international agencies. The IAF has no credible trainer aircraft, a reason given t the highest crash rate in the world. The HPT-32s have been grounded. The HTT-34 was a total failure.
The Mig 21s have pretty much been grounded. The Il-76 have been grouned, so the IAF really has only about 300 aircraft of unprdictable value. Due to the unavailbility of the LCAs, has ordered 126 planes as part of the MCRC program. However the MMRCA (ten C-17, eight Boeing P8I LRMP (for the Navy), six Lockheed Martin C-130J, six second-hand Sea King helicopters (for the Navy) won’t be delivered for a decade. The IAF may also be buying 12 Mirages from Qatar.
The Chinese  People’s Liberation Army Air Force (PLAAF)  possesses some 1653 combat capable aircraft. ThePLA Navy has 290 of which some 30 per cent are current generation including 84 J-10, 116 J-11(Su-27), 97 Su-30MKK, 156 JH/FB-7, 516 J-8, and 540 J-7. Since its unveiling in 2003-04, the PLAAF has already inducted 84 J-10 fighters of the roughly F-16 class.China has the capacity build 40 to 50 fighters per year, a capacity it is increasing exponentially. China has built the first ever Airbus outside Europe and rolled out a Cessna-162 basic trainer the first of some 1500 of these aircraft. According to Aviation Week & Space Technology (AWST) Annual Review Resource Book 2009, ‘Aircraft Forecasting’ Report, China would rank among the major producers of modern fighters in the current decade with the capacity to produce 45 to 48 fighters of the J-10 and J-11 class. This means that the PLAAF would field some 1500 to 2000 modern fighters by 2020