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Saturday, 5 December 2009

Indo-Pak war in 2015

Syed Tassadque Hussain

The times of trouble have begun; the shadows of despair are lengthening. The people feel now they have been driven by orbillius martinets into the lap of Gods. A mist of dubiety and scepticism is slowly engulfing the landscape of the Valley. There is honest to goodness no light at the end of the tunnel. Gross and pitch tenebrity is descending like a pall of gloom on the, Valley. The hopes and aspirations and the vibrant dynamism of the youthful Laputans have been hindered to sheer Larghetto course.

The dreams are crashing and falling around your ears, like the debris thrown up by mighty Trembler razing skyscrapers into rubble. The political giants who felt they are destined and born to mould the destiny of the nation, now, feel embroiled in a political lash up. The mighty political heavy weights feel afflicted and are staggering by a severe Lassa fever. The common man, the faceless, the insignificant man in the street with some divine prescience; says that Lassitude, weariness, faintness, languor and list-lessness is the name of the game called Indo-Pak dialogue. People avoid even to talk about it. This is the new scenario slowly emerging inside Kashmir, but, without something climacteric is contemporaneously happening that will fan the ashes and blaze a new fire. Contemplating this political landscape I am forcefully reminded of what President Barrack Obama of US said tellingly in his book "The Audacity of Hope" He asseverated:

"... ... The best I can do in the face of our history is remind myself, that it has not always been the Pragmatist, the voice of reason; or the force of compromise, that has created the conditions of Liberty. The hard cold fact reminds me, that it was the unbending idealists, like William Lloyd Garrison, who first sounded the clarion call for justice; that it was slaves, former slaves, men like Denmark Vesey and Frederick Douglass and women like, Harriat Tubman who recognized power would concede nothing without a fight…..     I reminded that deliberation and constitutional order may sometimes be the luxury of the powerful, and, that it has sometimes been the cranks, the Zealots, the Prophets, the agitators, and the unreasonable, in other words, the absolutists that have fought for a new order. "

Barrack Hussain Obama is a political phenomenon although he may not prove a very successful President of the US.A, yet his thoughts on reclaiming the American dream have kindled my own imagination. As both a Muslim believer and a sceptic, I have always reposed my faith in the transforming power of the transcendental destiny that is also playing its own Larrikin in this part of the world. What I mean to emphasize is that new emerging scenario will soon impact the politics in Kashmir. Chinese factor in South Asia is about to provide a new fillip, a new boost, a new push, a new spur, a new incentive, and a new stimulus to the unbending idealists in the Valley to rekindle the embers in otherwise dead ashes. As a China watcher, I have warned the Indian ideologues in several of my discourse "that do not disregard the Chinese determination, based on Confucian insouciance, to reduce India to low down, dispiriting Hindudom. Hindutva in India has I already robbed the word Secular of its quintessential core content, and, political scenario in South Asia is changing fast put India in a queer street. "

My view is that Professor Pervez Hoodbhoy is right in concluding that a process of Saudi-isation of Pakistan has begun in right earnest. The real danger is the Saudi-isation of Pak Army. Musharraf feels that the Saudi-ised Cabal in the Pak Army may not be able to stage a coup. I do not fully agree with Mr. Parvez Musharraf, Gen. Ashfaq Kiyani could succeed in Swat and Fata region only after striking a deal with Maulvi Nazir, Hafiz Gul Bahadur and Jalall-ud-din Haqauni factions of Afghan Taliban. To dismissively disregard the accusation that Mullah Urnar is well ensconced in the city of Karachi as Jobber-Wocky gibberish would be height of irresponsibility associated with a mind. Jack up the rig policy will not pay in the long run. The U.S. drones would zoom across the Karachi skies before you could say Jack Robinson!

India and Russia are providing logistic, financial support and armaments to Mehsud and Balouch insurgents. This is also the viewpoint of no less a person than

Gen. Ashfaq Kiyani. What does this mean?

Kashmir is the rebus in this Jigsaw puzzle because of its close territorial approximation to China. Putin faction in Russian politics and Indian aim to de-stabilise Pakistan, has driven Pakistan into the lap of China. Putin's Russian faction is advancing the theory that LOC should be a permanent border between India and Pakistan. Bill Clinton had promised to lend his support to this ideal. Few days back Brajesh Mishra, India’s former national Security Advisor in an interview with "Zee News Channel," publicly asseverated that LoC should be declared as a permanent border between India and Pakistan. The Hurriyat (M) and Indian government dialogue is aimed to achieve this objective. However, India is once again ignoring the Chinese factor while entering into a dialogue with Kashmiri Politicians.

China would not allow the dismemberment of Pakistan. To contain India it cannot allow that LoC in Kashmir should be accorded the status of permanence. Brajesh Mish'ra openly admitted that China had taken a hostile stance against New Delhi due to India-US. Civil Nuclear Pact.

It is not without significance that Baltistan has been conferred an autonomous status, and soon thereafter, China declared it would vend one hundred and fifty State of the art, jet fighters and surveillance mechanism to Pak Air Force. Hence, a new political demarche by China is in the offing. China can’t allow Russia to oust its influence in Iran and Central Asia. My view is that Chinese believe in providing logistic support to Maoists in India and the ISI controlled insurgents in Kashmir. Pak Army is now divided between the Saudi-ised Cabal and the broadminded Cabal led by Gen. Ashfaq Kiyani. It is the Kiyani Cabal of Pak Army that is in league with China. Zardari knows precisely the clash of undercurrent forces in Pakistan.
Now the question remains how this situation is going to impact Kashmir? As a China watcher, I have come to the conclusion, that President Obama visited Chine to encourage it to develop a secret confident alliance with President Medvedev of Russia so as to create circumstances for styming Prime Minister Valadimir Putin, and, that is why US is again planning to deploy patriot ground to Air-missiles, in Poland. US has again started raising the slogan that Georgia’s integration with NATO is inevitable for safety of Europe. China is the main US ally to contain Russia. In exchange US will allow China to enhance its influence in West Asia.

India should not ignore the blatant fact China is also directly funding Ashfaq Kiyani Cabal in Pak Army. This also explains why retired General Parvez Musharraf in his interview to US Journalist Seymour Hersh remarked that there are "people with fundamentalist ideas in the army, but I don't think that there is any possibility of these people getting organized and doing an uprising." China after securing the support of Pak Army would induce the Pak government to declare POK as an independent state that wou1d enter into defence pact with China. Thereafter, the Kashmiri Freedom Struggle will be under written by China leading to India-Pak war in 2015. War is inevitable and aimed to prevent this demarche being translated into reality. The emerging situation in Kashmir, by all accounts is contra pacem. Let us be prepared for the worst. As prisoner of optimism I hope divine providence will intervene and change our destiny!
Author is senior advocate in High Court, J&K

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