According to a study in the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, Pakistan is pushing ahead with a plutonium-based nuclear programme, superior to its previous reliance on uranium technology. Plutonium is easier to weaponise, as smaller quantities of the material are required. Two new plutonium production reactors are under construction, it said.
The report concluded that Pakistan has an arsenal of 70 to 90 nuclear weapons "and is busily enhancing its capabilities across the board". That would represent much quicker progress than expected. A 1999 estimate by the US Defence Intelligence Agency had estimated that Pakistan had been 25 and 35 warheads and would have between 60 and 80 by 2020.
The report also said that a new nuclear-capable ballistic missile is being readied for deployment and two nuclear-capable cruise missiles are under development.
"The types of facilities under construction suggest that Pakistan has decided to supplement and perhaps replace its heavy uranium-based weapons with smaller, lighter plutonium-based designs that could be delivered further by ballistic missiles than its current warheads and that could be used in cruise missiles," said the study, by scientists Robert S. Norris and Hans Kristensen.
Earlier this month, a senior Indian scientist, K. Santanam, had revealed that the country's 1998 test – copied shortly afterwards by Pakistan – had not been as successful as previously claimed. According to leading Pakistani physicist Pervez Hoodbhoy, the admission was not an act of coming clear but an attempt by India's nuclear establishment to press the case for new tests.
Rather than a minimal deterrence "both countries are rushing to make as many (weapons) as they can", said Professor Hoodbhoy.
India's 1998 test was of a hydrogen bomb, which is many times more powerful than a weapon that Pakistan could produce with its technology.
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