What may be the consequences of Mehsud’s death?

Saturday, August 08, 2009
It became official when Foreign Minister Shah Mahmood Qureshi - who was coincidentally addressing a youth parliament forum - said that intelligence reports stated that Taliban leader Baitullah Mehsud had been killed in drone attack in Waziristan on Wednesday. Speaking to reporters his exact words were “He has been taken out”, going on to say that the government was seeking ground verification – presumably DNA evidence – to confirm his death 100 per cent. The same drone strike killed one of his wives and up to seven of his bodyguards and close associates. His death is going to shift the balance of power within the Pakistani Taliban movement of which he was a leading figure, and perhaps trigger a leadership contest as bloody as any of the campaigns he waged against the Pakistani state. That he was killed in an American drone strike rather than being turned in for the $5 million reward by a disaffected supporter or by our own forces is also of note. For years it has been said that the Americans were dragging their feet when it came to Baitullah Mehsud, and despite there being more than one occasion when we passed them actionable intelligence as to his location, they failed to strike. It took the US some time to wake up to the existential threat to the state which he presented, but they eventually did and we may reasonably assume that there was a cooperative effort between our forces and the Americans to achieve what looks like a ‘result.’ Both sides are likely to be pleased with themselves and one-another.

What may be the consequences of Mehsud’s death? Firstly the TTP are going to have to elect a new leader and may have done so by the time these words appear in print. There are three or four names in the frame, but there are questions as to whether any of them can provide the unity of command that Mehsud did. His authority extended to at least six groups operating as a loose collectivity, with family and tribal ties also a part of the glue that held them together. With Mehsud gone so may have cohesion, allowing our own forces to exploit the splits and differences between the various groups. What does seem to be clear is that with Mehsud dead the Taliban are much less likely to be able to mount the kind of threat that they presented to the state in 2008 and the early months of 2009. Talibanisation has been dealt a blow but it is not dead, and is going to remain a potent force which needs to be countervailed with consistent governmental and military policies. It is also probable that the operation that killed Mehsud will be seen as a significant CBM – a confidence building measure – between the Pakistan military and the Americans, where a trust deficit has bedevilled the relationship for many years.

Baitullah Mehsud was the most significant leader to emerge from the Pakistani Taliban in recent years. He was rumoured to be close to Al-Qaeda and to Mullah Omar, rumoured to have had a hand in the murder of Benazir Bhutto, rumoured to be behind any number of bomb, gun and suicide attacks that have terrorised the population. His death is a success but does not represent a war won, which is yet far off and perhaps years away. The greatest battle will to be to win back the predominantly youthful hearts and minds that his perverted view of the world and of Islam had turned to dark thoughts and dark ways – win that battle and we will truly have won the war.